El Nino To Bring Hottest Year Ever

GRENADA’S FISHERMEN are no strangers to the impacts of ocean currents and the thermocline. Lobster fishermen can describe how the temperature changes in the ocean as they dive to find lobsters hiding under rocks and corals in the ocean below. They can also tell you that during a hot summer, they may only pass through one thermocline as they dive, instead of two or three, which is normal in this region. The water can be warm at one depth and be five degrees cooler a few inches below that. Fishermen know how ocean currents can affect the movements of fish, and the kind of catch they bring in. Ocean currents around the world can run either above or below the thermocline in a phenomenon called thermal oscillation. Ocean currents, trade winds, and global temperatures are affected by thermal oscillation.

Usually, Pacific Ocean currents travel below the thermocline. When the currents flow above the thermocline, it generates an unusually warm area of water in the East Pacific that has been observed to be as high as five degrees warmer than usual during the peak of an El Nino year. Meteorologists at the United Kingdom’s meteorological office have observed an El Nino event forming in the Pacific and believe that this event could lead to 2007 being the warmest year ever recorded. 2006 was already recorded as nearly a half degree warmer than the 1961-1990 average, which made it the 6^th warmest year on record.

The accompanying image produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) shows the El Nino as of January 8^th, 2007, with areas already three degrees above normal, which can be seen as the red and orange areas on the map. The Spanish call this naturally occurring event ‘El Nino’ which translates into ‘Christ Child’ in English because it usually appears around the time the Christian world celebrates Christmas.

When El Nino events occur, the weather around the world becomes unusual. Meteorologists claim that the ‘warming’ effect that follows an El Nino event typically takes four months to be observed. El Nino events have even been observed to reverse the direction of trade winds, which have soaked Latin America with rain while the Asia Pacific region copes with severe droughts. In the last El Nino event in 1998, Latin America is estimated to have suffered over $8 Million (USD) in losses, though many economists believe the figure is much higher.

Unusual weather events in Grenada can also come with a price tag. Weather can affect things like shipping, fishing, tourism, agriculture and sports. Some of these sectors can thrive in drought conditions where the sunny weather that comes with drought is desirable, which might actually yield better profits. However, this is not always the case. Agriculture for example can brace for droughts, floods or both by planting crops that are known to be resilient to changes in soil moisture, as well as ensuring that some of the crops have a short growing period which can help to reduce losses. Other methods of protecting crops, such as terracing steep slopes that support crops can prevent erosion in heavy rainfalls and provide a buffer for climate variations.

The most vulnerable communities in an ‘El Nino’ year are the islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique. These islands lack natural water sources, and are dependant on rainwater collection to supply water to people, livestock and crops. There is a desalinization facility in Carriacou, but this facility would not be sufficient to provide all the water needs for the island in the event of a prolonged drought.

Jennifer Ellard-Deveney has worked as an environmentalist for over 20 years. She has a Specialized Honours Degree in Environmental Studies and Political Science from York University, and was a delegate in the United Nations Summit for Sustainable Development in 2002. She has been living in Grenada for nearly two years after coming here to assist with Hurricane Ivan recovery efforts and is a member of Grenada’s Sustainable Development Council. Jennifer currently writes a weekly article for the Grenada Advocate on sustainable development issues.