FIVE MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT: CLIMATE CHANGE

(Part 1 of 2) Climate change was one of two factors that moved the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight last week. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Doomsday Clock conveys how close humanity is to catastrophic destruction – the figurative midnight – and monitors the means humankind could use to obliterate itself. The ‘keepers of the clock’ are the Board of Directors and Board of Sponsors, of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists which include 18 Nobel Laureates, as well as some of the best minds of this age; such as Stephen Hawking. The clock was created in 1947 by scientists who were involved in the ‘Manhattan Project’ at the University of Chicago, which was responsible for creating the first nuclear weapons in the world. These weapons were detonated on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, in 1945.

The Board of Directors issued a statement explaining why the Doomsday clock was moved forward by two minutes. The Board did not mince words. They repeated their strong message throughout the statement. “We have concluded that the dangers posed by climate change are nearly as dire as those posed by nuclear weapons”, the statement read. “Global warming poses a dire threat to human civilization that is second only to nuclear weapons”, the latter being known to be capable of completely obliterating the planet and everything on it.

Climate change threatens our life support systems, “Coral reefs will disappear”. Ten years ago, any authority speaking on climate change would have used words such as, ‘might’ and ‘could’, before making predictions as large as the total loss of coral reefs, which are the foundation of the entire oceanic food chain and ecosystem balance. Losing the reefs is similar to the first domino falling in a chain reaction of events. At the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, scientists were already observing and warning the world about the likelihood of coral reefs dying out within 1-2 decades. Few paid attention. This kind of scepticism does not exist now: The evidence is mounting and the evidence is overwhelmingly clear.

Other examples cited to illustrate the grave threats climate change poses to humanity included the United State losing most of the cities on the east coast, such as New York, Boston, and nearly all of Florida. They also cited concerns that the projected number of environmental refugees in India and China alone will soar as high as 400 million, a number nearly twice the size of the population of the United States today. They cited increasing consensus within the scientific community about expected droughts, water shortages, extreme weather and other factors that threaten to upset the balance of life support systems for humans on this planet.

The Board also observed that changes in climate are happening faster than had been predicted. Pressures resulting from climate change (such as mass migrations and wars over resources like water and arable land) which will ultimately affect world stability increase the complexity and concern about the spread of nuclear weapons throughout the world.

It is the combined threats of climate change and nuclear proliferation that forms the heart of concern. Recognizing that climate change will threaten life support systems for humanity and the planet, which in turn will generate conflicts; the keepers of the clock turn their eyes to the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used in these conflicts to come.

Jennifer Ellard-Deveney has worked as an environmentalist for over 20 years. She has a Specialized Honours Degree in Environmental Studies and Political Science from York University, and was a delegate in the United Nations Summit for Sustainable Development in 2002. She has been living in Grenada for nearly two years after coming here to assist with Hurricane Ivan recovery efforts and is a member of Grenada’s Sustainable Development Council. Jennifer currently writes a weekly column for the Grenada Advocate on sustainable development issues.