FIVE MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT: SECOND NUCLEAR AGE

(Part 2 of 2) The combined threats of climate change and nuclear proliferation forms the heart of concern for the keepers of the Doomsday Clock. Recognizing that climate change will threaten life support systems for humanity and the planet, which in turn will generate conflicts; the keepers of the clock turn their eyes to the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used in these conflicts to come.

During the Cold War, many scientific, military and political experts believed that the risk of nuclear annihilation was mitigated by the fact that the United States and the Soviet Union were deterred from using their cache of nuclear weapons in conflict because both sides had developed enough weapons to ensure “Mutual Assured Destruction’, or MAD. Because of this MAD situation, it was reasonable to hold some faith that both countries would exercise restraint in the use of nuclear weapons against each other. Today’s world is a far different landscape, with bombs that are much bigger and far more countries already possessing or within reach of possessing nuclear capacity.

In 1945 a relatively small nuclear bomb was used on Hiroshima, which killed 100,000 people and destroyed an entire city. There are 50 known bombs in existence today which are capable of killing 200 million people in one explosion, though this is not the only reason for last weeks change in the Doomsday clock. More troublesome concerns are on the global horizon at this time, claim the Board.

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 1970, has arguably failed. India, Pakistan and North Korea have tested nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War, Israel has nuclear weapons and chooses not to declare them, and it is believed that as many as 30 countries may now possess the capacity, and increasingly the motivation, to develop nuclear weapons. Approximately 24 new nuclear reactors are scheduled to be built around the world over the next five years, 30 are scheduled to be built in China between now and 2020, and countries all over the world are now expressing interest in developing their own nuclear power. This increases the risk of proliferation because the spent plutonium fuel from power reactors are weapons-usable after reprocessing, and as the Board argues, waste material could end up in the hands of ‘civilian’ interests, like terrorists, just as easily as it can aid nuclear weapons development by states.

Jennifer Ellard-Deveney has worked as an environmentalist for over 20 years. She has a Specialized Honours Degree in Environmental Studies and Political Science from York University, and was a delegate in the United Nations Summit for Sustainable Development in 2002. She has been living in Grenada for nearly two years after coming here to assist with Hurricane Ivan recovery efforts and is a member of Grenada’s Sustainable Development Council. Jennifer currently writes a weekly column for the Grenada Advocate on sustainable development issues.